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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kayserispor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Kayserispor attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 23%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 47%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.42 PPG, Kayserispor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights