Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Samsunspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Kasımpaşa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Kasımpaşa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.36 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.011 / defence 1.155 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.956 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Samsunspor games / 38 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 37% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 37%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 37% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Samsunspor 1.36 / Kasımpaşa 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.011 / def 1.155 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.956 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kasımpaşa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 37% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (6 meetings): Samsunspor 3W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.89
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.36
Kasımpaşa xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.36 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 13D 11L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (9W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.45 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 8D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Samsunspor) and 58% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 37% of games; Kasımpaşa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Samsunspor's games and 63% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Samsunspor's matches and 58% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.