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Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 0-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.39 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 38% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights