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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.33 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.20 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 55% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 25%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Kasımpaşa 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.45 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights