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Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.31 xG and Hatayspor 1.22 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Hatayspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 61% | Draw 21% | Hatayspor 18%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Hatayspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Hatayspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights