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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.92 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.07 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 57% | Draw 22% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 21%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights