🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Samsunspor take on Gaziantep FK.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Samsunspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Gaziantep FK (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Samsunspor, 0.60 for Gaziantep FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Samsunspor 2W, Gaziantep FK 1W, 2D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Samsunspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Gaziantep FK 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.13 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.696 / defence 0.980 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.935 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.245. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Samsunspor games / 59 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 60%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights