🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Eyüpspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Samsunspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Eyüpspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.932 / defence 0.881 | Eyüpspor attack 0.637 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.272. Data: 47 Samsunspor games / 47 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Eyüpspor 5.00. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights