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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Eyüpspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 45% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights