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Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.28 xG and Eyüpspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Eyüpspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 31%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 50%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.69 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights