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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Samsunspor take on Başakşehir.

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Match Analysis

Samsunspor host Başakşehir at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 1, Başakşehir 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with Başakşehir winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Başakşehir 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.928 / defence 0.853 | Başakşehir attack 1.084 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.300. Data: 51 Samsunspor games / 51 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 29% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Başakşehir 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 60% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.

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