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Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 1-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Antalyaspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 22%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights