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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.10 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 58% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights