Rizespor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yeni Malatyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Süper Lig appearances (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Rizespor, 0.80 for Yeni Malatyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 69% | Yeni Malatyaspor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.14 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.968 / defence 1.074 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.565 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.168. Data: 16 Rizespor games / 16 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Yeni Malatyaspor 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Rizespor 1.14 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.968 / def 1.074 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.565 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 45% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Yeni Malatyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.56x) against Rizespor's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
45%
2.22
33%
3.04
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.84
0.71
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.71 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 1D 11L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Rizespor against 0.88 for Yeni Malatyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.88 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.71 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rizespor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 57% (Rizespor) and 0% (Yeni Malatyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rizespor) and 14% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 43%; Yeni Malatyaspor in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Rizespor's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rizespor's recent games and 14% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.14 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.56 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 45% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 69%, Yeni Malatyaspor 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 0.81 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.