Rizespor 3-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Trabzonspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 0, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 48% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 59% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.90 xG and Trabzonspor 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.853 / defence 1.334 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.246. Data: 29 Rizespor games / 29 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 61%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 0.90 / Trabzonspor 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.853 / def 1.334 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Trabzonspor xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 17% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
17%
5.77
22%
4.53
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.89
Trabzonspor xG
5.77
17%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
3%
38.14
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.89 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 6W 5D 18L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 7D 1L from 29 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (6W 1D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 3D 1L from 14 away games — 2.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.93 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 6W 5D 18L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 7D 1L in their last 29 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.36 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rizespor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 57%, Trabzonspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rizespor) and 57% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rizespor's games and 64% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Rizespor's matches and 57% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Rizespor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Trabzonspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.90 xG and Trabzonspor 1.89 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.33 against Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 17% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 61%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 59%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.