Rizespor 1-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Sivasspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sivasspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rizespor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Rizespor in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Sivasspor in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 64% | Sivasspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.38 xG and Sivasspor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.900 / defence 1.483 | Sivasspor attack 0.930 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.344. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Rizespor games / 36 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 27% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 47%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 2.13. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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