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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Konyaspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights