Rizespor 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
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Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 0W 1D 8L from 9 Süper Lig matches — 0.11 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 0W 1D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 1W 3D 5L from 9 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.56 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.67 vs 0.11). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Kasımpaşa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 67% | Kasımpaşa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.11 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.738 / defence 1.351 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.643 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.159. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Rizespor games / 9 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 38% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Kasımpaşa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (0.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 38% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Rizespor 1.11 / Kasımpaşa 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.738 / def 1.351 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.643 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kasımpaşa xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 38% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.74x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.36
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.12
1.01
Kasımpaşa xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.01 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.11 PPG on a 0W 1D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kasımpaşa are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 games (0.11 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 0.25 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 25% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 50% of games; Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rizespor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 25% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.11 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.74 / defence 1.35 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 38% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 32%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 67%, Kasımpaşa 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 0.67 PPG against 0.11. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.