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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.40 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Rizespor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rizespor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 59% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.97 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.080 / defence 1.049 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Rizespor games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 53% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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