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Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Rizespor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 1-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 35% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 32%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights