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Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Rizespor 0-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 2.15 xG and Göztepe 1.39 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Göztepe outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Göztepe attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 55% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 24%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Göztepe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Göztepe 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Göztepe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.36 PPG, Göztepe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights