Rizespor 0-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Fenerbahçe meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Rizespor against 1.70 for Fenerbahçe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 7 wins from 8 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Fenerbahçe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.795 / defence 1.093 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.999 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.151. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Rizespor games / 40 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Rizespor 1.03 / Fenerbahçe 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.795 / def 1.093 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.999 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fenerbahçe xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Rizespor 0 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 30% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rizespor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.00x) against Rizespor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.54
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.29
1.26
Fenerbahçe xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.26 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor's recent record stands at 13W 12D 15L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 4L across 40 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 24W 12D 4L in their last 40 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.42 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-6 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Rizespor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
From 9 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Rizespor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 42%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Rizespor) and 63% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%; Rizespor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rizespor's recent matches and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Rizespor's matches and 63% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Rizespor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 0-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.26 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.00 / defence 0.77, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 30% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 41%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Fenerbahçe 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.