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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 2-5 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.90 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.60 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.32 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 19% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Fenerbahçe 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights