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Poisson rates Rizespor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Rizespor's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rizespor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 2W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 0–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 60% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.55 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.890 / defence 1.033 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.913 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.327. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Rizespor games / 10 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 42% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 75% BTTS from recent games.

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