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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.55 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 42% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights