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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Rizespor take on Eyüpspor.

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Match Analysis

Rizespor host Eyüpspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rizespor, 0 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Rizespor in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.00 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.847 / defence 1.139 | Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.318. Data: 51 Rizespor games / 51 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 29% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Eyüpspor 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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