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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.33 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 39% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 33%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights