Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Rizespor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Beşiktaş (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Beşiktaş 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Beşiktaş 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.23 xG and Beşiktaş 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.861 / defence 1.086 | Beşiktaş attack 0.783 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.088. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Rizespor games / 19 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 43% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Beşiktaş 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 43% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Rizespor 1.23 / Beşiktaş 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.861 / def 1.086 | Beşiktaş attack 0.783 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Beşiktaş xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Rizespor 2 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 43% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.78x) against Rizespor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.38
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Beşiktaş xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.93 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 2D 12L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 5W 0D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.58 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 5W 2D 12L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Rizespor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.67 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Beşiktaş 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 56% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Beşiktaş finished level at 2-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.23 xG and Beşiktaş 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Beşiktaş attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 43% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Beşiktaş 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.