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Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, as Rizespor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Başakşehir attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 37%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 59%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights