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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.12 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Antalyaspor attack 0.60 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 39% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.27 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights