Ümraniyespor 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Ümraniyespor welcome Trabzonspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Süper Lig matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D L L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.60 PPG return is 1.35 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Ümraniyespor in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ümraniyespor 25% | Trabzonspor 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ümraniyespor 25% | Trabzonspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.583 / defence 1.059 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.260. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.583 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Ümraniyespor games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 25% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 49%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.04. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ümraniyespor 25% | Trabzonspor 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 25% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.02 / Trabzonspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.583 / def 1.059 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Trabzonspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor?
Ümraniyespor 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ümraniyespor's attack rating (0.58) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
3.93
26%
3.88
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.51
Trabzonspor xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.51 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ümraniyespor come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Ümraniyespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Ümraniyespor are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 25%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Ümraniyespor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
1
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Ümraniyespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ümraniyespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Trabzonspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ümraniyespor 25% BTTS, Trabzonspor 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ümraniyespor and 25% for Trabzonspor.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 75%; Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 25% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ümraniyespor's recent games and 25% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Ümraniyespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Ümraniyespor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.51 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ümraniyespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.58 / defence 1.06 against Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 25% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 49%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 25%, Trabzonspor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.