Ümraniyespor 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Ümraniyespor welcome Sivasspor to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ümraniyespor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 2W 3D 5L at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sivasspor's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ümraniyespor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ümraniyespor, 0 for Sivasspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ümraniyespor in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ümraniyespor 67% and Sivasspor 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 60% | Sivasspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.36 xG and Sivasspor 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.802 / defence 1.155 | Sivasspor attack 1.013 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.397. Data: 30 Ümraniyespor games / 69 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.36 / Sivasspor 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.802 / def 1.155 | Sivasspor attack 1.013 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Ümraniyespor 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 32% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Ümraniyespor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ümraniyespor's attack rating (0.80) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.15
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.99
1.63
Sivasspor xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
16.05
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.63 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 5W 8D 17L from 30 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 14L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sivasspor by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 2W 4D 9L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 6W 1D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 8D 17L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.67 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Ümraniyespor 4-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor?
Ümraniyespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ümraniyespor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 60%, Sivasspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ümraniyespor and 73% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Sivasspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ümraniyespor's games and 53% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 73% of Sivasspor's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ümraniyespor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Sivasspor 4-1 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.36 xG and Sivasspor 1.63 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ümraniyespor beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Sivasspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 44%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ümraniyespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 60%, Sivasspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Ümraniyespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.