Ümraniyespor 0-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Ümraniyespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Antalyaspor arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Antalyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.23 xG and Antalyaspor 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Antalyaspor attack 1.081 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.296. Data: 1 Ümraniyespor games / 39 Antalyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 29% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 2.17. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 29% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.23 / Antalyaspor 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Antalyaspor attack 1.081 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Antalyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor?
Ümraniyespor 0 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 29% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ümraniyespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.08x) against Ümraniyespor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
29%
3.46
25%
4.01
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.61
Antalyaspor xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.61 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Ümraniyespor have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ümraniyespor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ümraniyespor are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ümraniyespor's scoring rate against Antalyaspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Antalyaspor in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Antalyaspor 3-2 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 0% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ümraniyespor's recent games and 0% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ümraniyespor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Ümraniyespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Ümraniyespor 0-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.23 xG and Antalyaspor 1.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ümraniyespor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 29% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 46%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 100%, Antalyaspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ümraniyespor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ümraniyespor managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.