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Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights