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Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.69 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Samsunspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 44%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights