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Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Samsunspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.08 PPG, Samsunspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights