Konyaspor 3-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's away record: 0W 0D 6L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Konyaspor. A 1.10 PPG lead over Rizespor (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 58% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Rizespor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 2.17 xG and Rizespor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.136 / defence 1.054 | Rizespor attack 0.698 / defence 1.607. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.104. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.607 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Konyaspor games / 12 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Rizespor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 83% | Rizespor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 49% | xG Konyaspor 2.17 / Rizespor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.136 / def 1.054 | Rizespor attack 0.698 / def 1.607 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rizespor xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 3 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 68% chance of winning, Rizespor a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Konyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.14) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.70x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.31
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.98
0.81
Rizespor xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
68.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.81 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 6W 5D 1L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor's form line: 2W 1D 9L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.92 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rizespor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
3
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Konyaspor, 50% for Rizespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Konyaspor and 83% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Konyaspor's games and 50% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Konyaspor's matches and 83% of Rizespor's.
Do Konyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Rizespor 3-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 2.17 xG and Rizespor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Rizespor attack 0.70 / defence 1.61, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 68% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 13%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Rizespor 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rizespor's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.