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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.40 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Rizespor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Rizespor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Rizespor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.62 xG and Rizespor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.926 / defence 0.965 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 4.35. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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