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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Konyaspor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor and Rizespor finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.34 xG and Rizespor 1.66 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Rizespor attack 1.12 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 29% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 42%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.22 PPG, Rizespor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights