Konyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Konyaspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor at Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kocaelispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kocaelispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Kocaelispor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Konyaspor 1W, Kocaelispor 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 64% versus Kocaelispor 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Kocaelispor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.838 / defence 0.964 | Kocaelispor attack 0.781 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.145. Data: 36 Konyaspor games / 36 Kocaelispor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Kocaelispor 27%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Kocaelispor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Kocaelispor 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Kocaelispor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.19 / Kocaelispor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.838 / def 0.964 | Kocaelispor attack 0.781 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Kocaelispor xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Kocaelispor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kocaelispor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.84x the league average against Kocaelispor's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.78x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.35
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Kocaelispor xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.86 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 10D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kocaelispor sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kocaelispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.11 for Kocaelispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Kocaelispor have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.78 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Kocaelispor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kocaelispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
0
Draws
2
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kocaelispor?
From 3 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Konyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Kocaelispor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 28% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Kocaelispor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 39% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 28% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kocaelispor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Kocaelispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Kocaelispor 27%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 56%, Kocaelispor 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kocaelispor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.