🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Konyaspor 2-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.98 xG and Kocaelispor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kocaelispor outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Kocaelispor attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 43/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 63% | Draw 25% | Kocaelispor 12%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Kocaelispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 75%, Kocaelispor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Kocaelispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights