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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 1.70 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 6 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.967 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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