Konyaspor 4-4 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 46% versus Kasımpaşa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Kasımpaşa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.879 / defence 0.762 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.853 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.089. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Konyaspor games / 25 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Kasımpaşa's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Konyaspor 1.05 / Kasımpaşa 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.879 / def 0.762 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.853 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Kasımpaşa xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 4 - 4 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.88) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
42%
2.39
35%
2.87
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.76
0.71
Kasımpaşa xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.71 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 14W 6D 4L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 7W 6D 11L from 24 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 6D 4L in their last 24 games (2.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 27%, Kasımpaşa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Konyaspor and 36% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Konyaspor's recent games and 36% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 4-4 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.71 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 0.71 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.76 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Kasımpaşa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.