Konyaspor 0-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Giresunspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 0.70 PPG, Giresunspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Konyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Giresunspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Giresunspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.34 xG and Giresunspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.707 / defence 0.993 | Giresunspor attack 0.880 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.336. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Konyaspor games / 60 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Giresunspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Giresunspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Giresunspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Giresunspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.34 / Giresunspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.707 / def 0.993 | Giresunspor attack 0.880 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Giresunspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.73
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.51
1.17
Giresunspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.17 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 28L across 60 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Giresunspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 16W 8D 6L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.87 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Konyaspor 0-0 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 43%, Giresunspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 60% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Giresunspor finished level at 0-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.34 xG and Giresunspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Giresunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against Giresunspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Giresunspor 32%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Giresunspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Giresunspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.