Konyaspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Gaziantep FK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 51% | Gaziantep FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.931 / defence 0.616 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.887 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.285. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.616 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Konyaspor games / 47 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 57% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Gaziantep FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 57% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.52 / Gaziantep FK 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.931 / def 0.616 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.887 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gaziantep FK xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 57% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.89x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.81
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.22
0.70
Gaziantep FK xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
4%
26.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.70 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 47 games, going 25W 11D 11L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.23 PPG from 47 outings (15W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 16W 5D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.43 points per game from 23 outings (2W 4D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.32 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 25W 11D 11L in their last 47 games (1.83 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 5, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 39%, Gaziantep FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gaziantep FK defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.70 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.62 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 57% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 17%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 51%, Gaziantep FK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.