Konyaspor 4-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Gaziantep FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 53% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.77 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.100 / defence 0.868 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.630 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.218. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Konyaspor games / 32 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 63% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 12%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Gaziantep FK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 10% | Gaziantep FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 63% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Konyaspor 1.77 / Gaziantep FK 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.100 / def 0.868 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.630 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Gaziantep FK xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor 4 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 63% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.10x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.63x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
63%
1.60
25%
3.92
12%
8.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.44
0.67
Gaziantep FK xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
8.35
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
49.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.67 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 32 games, going 17W 7D 8L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 11W 4D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.38 points per game from 16 outings (1W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 7D 8L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.31 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 5, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 38%, Gaziantep FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 4-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.77 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.67 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.63 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 63% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 12%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 53%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.