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Poisson model favours Konyaspor (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Gaziantep FK.

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Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Gaziantep FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gaziantep FK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Gaziantep FK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Gaziantep FK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Gaziantep FK 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.62 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.926 / defence 0.966 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.983 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Gaziantep FK 4.35. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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