🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.55 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 47% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 27%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 51%, Gaziantep FK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.32 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights