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Poisson rates Göztepe at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Göztepe travel to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Göztepe are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Göztepe in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 66% and Göztepe 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Göztepe 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.94 xG and Göztepe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.891 / defence 1.048 | Göztepe attack 0.949 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.299. Data: 56 Konyaspor games / 56 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 23% | Draw 36% | Göztepe 41%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Göztepe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Göztepe are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | Göztepe 40%.

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