Konyaspor 2-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Konyaspor, 1.90 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 60% and Fenerbahçe 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.53 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.105 / defence 1.035 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.893 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.122. Data: 10 Konyaspor games / 10 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 3.85. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 80% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.53 / Fenerbahçe 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.105 / def 1.035 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.893 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fenerbahçe xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.10) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (0.89x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.90
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.57
1.04
Fenerbahçe xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.04 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 5D 1L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 3L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.90 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.40 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Konyaspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 80%, Fenerbahçe 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Konyaspor) and 40% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Konyaspor's games and 40% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Konyaspor's recent games and 40% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Fenerbahçe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Fenerbahçe 2-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.53 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 40%, Fenerbahçe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.70 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.